Friday, August 30, 2019

Dorian Update

Every year at the Lovely Laura Lee's family farm, where her mother and brother and his family live, there is a huge pig roast on the Saturday of Labor Day weekend. LL and I were to go there today, and she is on her way now. I stayed behind until early tomorrow to get the boat and house in as good a shape as I can to prepare for Hurricane Dorian, now a Category 4 Hurricane bearing down on the northern Bahamas.

The storm's path is gradually becoming more clear. See is now expected to make landfall, or nearly so, Tuesday in south Florida, and turn northward running up the state of Florida very slowly. What is unclear is whether it will be over land or water as it moves north. Over land, the storm would be weakened while over the ocean it could continue to maintain its strength. Officially it is expected to be near Jacksonville, Florida, Wednesday afternoon with 105 mph winds. Jacksonville is roughly 120 miles south of our location near Savannah, Georgia.

It is impossible to overstate the seriousness of this situation. Should a category 4 or 5 hurricane travel up the east coast of Florida just offshore, the devastation could be unimaginable. Should the storm travel north over land, it will be weakened somewhat, but storm surge and wind damage would still be catastrophic.

We are not taking this lightly. We are hopeful the our house and boat will be safe, but we fully expect that we might not be able to get back home for maybe a week. I've battened down the hatches as well as I can. We will just be following the storm to see what happens here and when we can return.

Good luck to everyone in the path of this mess. Worry about your personal safety first and property second.

Saturday 5 AM Update -- The NHS discussion released early this morning shows a remarkable change stating: "The global models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida."

Let's hope this eastward trend continues.

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